The United States conducted few days ago a series of airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, following Israel’s strikes on Iran that began on 13 June with the aim of neutralizing Tehran’s nuclear capabilities and deterring further attacks.
Following the Israeli strikes, the Houthis condemned “Israel’s aggression,” but took no corresponding action.
When asking what impact will these US strikes have on Houthi activity and the fate of the US-Houthi ceasefire in the Red Sea? Dr. Luca Nevola, Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) Senior Analyst for Yemen and the Gulf, said:
“Amid the regional escalation, the Houthis have adopted a low-profile posture. In a clear de-escalatory pattern, they have limited their activity to a single attack on Israel since 13 June. Despite repeated threats, they have also refrained from resuming strikes on commercial shipping. This suggests an effort to avoid further escalating regional tensions — a pattern of behavior similar to that observed after Iran’s first attack on Israel on 14 April 2024, when Houthi attacks ceased completely for nine days.”
On Saturday, 21 June, the eve of Washington’s strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, the Houthis vowed to resume attacks on US warships in case of “American aggression in support of the Israeli enemy against the Islamic Republic of Iran.”2
Nevola continued, “The recent US strike may usher in a new chapter of uncertainty. The Houthis maintain the capacity to target US warships and may seek to launch symbolic attacks to back up their threats. However, such actions are likely to remain limited, as they seek to avoid further escalation.” Houthis attacks on US warships had ceased on 6 May, following an Omani-mediated ceasefire agreement with Washington.