The latest developments in south Yemen—when the UAE-supported separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) expanded its control over the eastern Hadramawt and Mahra governorates—emanate from the aspirations of Yemeni leaders and the struggle for power in both the north and the south of the country, wrote Dr. Nabeel A. Khoury in an analysis published by Arab Center Washington DC,
Dr. Khoury, a Non-resident Fellow at Arab Center Washington DC and a former US Department of State diplomat, added that these aspirations ultimately move only within the space allowed them by more powerful players, both regional and international. Indeed, the chess pieces on the board can make choices, but only in as much as the chess players outside Yemen will allow.
He found that “The move by the STC signals an end to the relative calm that has prevailed in south Yemen since the battle for Marib in 2021. It also appears to have shattered the already fragile governing coalition put together in 2022 via a Saudi-Emirati agreement, with the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) president Rashad al-Alimi leaving Aden for Riyadh and blaming the STC for the collapse of the agreement.
Dr. Khoury suggested that “If STC advances in eastern Yemen hold, in effect placing the entire Yemeni south under its control, it would leave the PLC with literally no ground on which to stand”.
He concluded that “Yemeni leaders and people have the option, at least theoretically speaking, of rejecting all foreign influences and working out a purely internal deal to build a new state in which all regions and factions could feel comfortable”
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